WoW Insider reports today that the Worldwide Invitational is scheduled for Paris at the end of June, with the new expansion hand on playable. Well, let's look at the wording. Hands on doesn't mean it hasn't been released, to me at least, it means that the contest side of the event will not likely use that content. Second, let's look at the dates. If this is a playable demo, then it could be as little as a 2 week preview on the expansion.
Here is what I am hearing from reliable sources. First, the Friends & Family testing phase ends soon. If this was from a Blizzard rep, I would say that could be anything from a week to a couple months, but this wasn't Blizzard. This was a reliable source without corporate 'cover your ass' speak enabled. Second, what I said we needed for my predicted time frame for release, 2.4 PTR by the end of February, has happened.
Give it a couple months of testing for 2.4, including I suspect a contest phase where we can compete for entry into a beta phase, and we see the patch live about April. Launch the official closed beta around the same time, give it a couple to three months for beta, and release in mid to late July. I know, the conventional wisdom you see is late fall or winter sometime, but I just don't see that being reasonable. Yes, the expansion is a lot of work, but those who are working on it are only doing that for the most part. 2.4 is not their distraction, nor is Starcraft 2.
Let me break down my math for you one last time, and that way I have it in test for reference. Pardon my excessive math. WoW launched Nov 23, 2004. Burning Crusade launched Jan 16, 2007. That is roughly 26 months between them. With me so far? Blizzard previously stated that no development was done, nothing was even started for TBC for about 6 months due to the wild popularity, server problems, code issues, and other issues that came along with the launch of the game. This knocks TBC development to 20 months.
Got that? We're at 20 months of development. Say we have Wrath of the Lich King on July 15, ok? Yes, hypothetically. That will be 18 months. 18 and 20 months aren't too far apart, right? The arguments I usually hear about this time is that WLK has much more to be worked on and fit into the game. I agree. Now here is the final piece of the puzzle that is my expected release date. "Our goal is to progress toward annual expansions." Now I originally thought that we would see 16-17 months of development on the expansion, but I can give time for recovery from TBC.
So while there is much more to do, and they want to move toward annual expansions, I don't think it is too much to think that 18 months of development for WLK, with all the extra work people suspect is needed, would be a decent time for the second expansion. So, while it could be late 2008 for the expansion, I do not think it will be January 2009 like some of the crazier people have said. I just don't see them aiming for less time and taking more time than TBC did. If they don't get better, improve on their past accomplishments, then what use is it to be in business? What the WWI means
Here is what I am hearing from reliable sources. First, the Friends & Family testing phase ends soon. If this was from a Blizzard rep, I would say that could be anything from a week to a couple months, but this wasn't Blizzard. This was a reliable source without corporate 'cover your ass' speak enabled. Second, what I said we needed for my predicted time frame for release, 2.4 PTR by the end of February, has happened.
Give it a couple months of testing for 2.4, including I suspect a contest phase where we can compete for entry into a beta phase, and we see the patch live about April. Launch the official closed beta around the same time, give it a couple to three months for beta, and release in mid to late July. I know, the conventional wisdom you see is late fall or winter sometime, but I just don't see that being reasonable. Yes, the expansion is a lot of work, but those who are working on it are only doing that for the most part. 2.4 is not their distraction, nor is Starcraft 2.
Let me break down my math for you one last time, and that way I have it in test for reference. Pardon my excessive math. WoW launched Nov 23, 2004. Burning Crusade launched Jan 16, 2007. That is roughly 26 months between them. With me so far? Blizzard previously stated that no development was done, nothing was even started for TBC for about 6 months due to the wild popularity, server problems, code issues, and other issues that came along with the launch of the game. This knocks TBC development to 20 months.
Got that? We're at 20 months of development. Say we have Wrath of the Lich King on July 15, ok? Yes, hypothetically. That will be 18 months. 18 and 20 months aren't too far apart, right? The arguments I usually hear about this time is that WLK has much more to be worked on and fit into the game. I agree. Now here is the final piece of the puzzle that is my expected release date. "Our goal is to progress toward annual expansions." Now I originally thought that we would see 16-17 months of development on the expansion, but I can give time for recovery from TBC.
So while there is much more to do, and they want to move toward annual expansions, I don't think it is too much to think that 18 months of development for WLK, with all the extra work people suspect is needed, would be a decent time for the second expansion. So, while it could be late 2008 for the expansion, I do not think it will be January 2009 like some of the crazier people have said. I just don't see them aiming for less time and taking more time than TBC did. If they don't get better, improve on their past accomplishments, then what use is it to be in business? What the WWI means
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